The rupee plunged 58 pips on Monday to close at a record low of 81.67 against the US dollar. The rise in the US dollar abroad and the risk-off sentiment among investors weighed on local businesses. In addition, rising geopolitical risks from the Ukraine conflict, a negative trend in domestic stocks and a large outflow of foreign capital are reducing investor appetite, forex traders said. In the interbank FX market, the local currency opened at 81.47 and then fell further to close at an all-time low of 81.67 against the US currency, down 58 pips from the previous close.
“The rupee hits a new all-time low as the dollar rises across the board. The pound continued to fall after the UK government announced a huge debt tax cut,” said Gaurang, his Forex & Bullion analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Somayya added that North Korea launched a ballistic missile off the east coast over the weekend. Political instability in China has disrupted overall economic sentiment, leaving the renminbi depressed. “We expect USD-INR (spot) to trade flat, trading in the 81.20-81.80 range,” Somayya said.
On Friday, the rupee closed at his 81.09, down 30 paises. This is the lowest price ever. This is the domestic unit’s fourth straight loss and is down 193 pips against the US dollar. Dilip Palmer, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said: “The dollar has again made a strong rally against the rupee amid risk-off sentiment and unprecedented dollar strength following Fed tightening and recession fears. The stock fell four days in a row. Spot USD-INR could move towards 82 as the dollar index continues to rise as bond yields rise, said Palmer. He added that there is short-term resistance at 81.05 and that 81.05 is supported.
According to Anuj Chowdhury, research analyst at BNP Paribas Sherekan, the Indian rupee hit a record low on the back of a stronger dollar and weaker domestic markets. The dollar surged to its 20-year high of 114.527 amid weak global stock markets and a plunge in risky currencies such as the pound. “The pound shook the market, falling to a record low of about 1.035 to the dollar after UK Treasury Secretary Kwasi Kwarten announced tax cuts and increased borrowing. The market has been paralyzed by concerns about economic growth in the UK,” said Choudhary.
“We expect the rupee to trade negatively as worsening global risk sentiment could put downward pressure on the rupee. Weakening global markets will likely lead to inflows of safe-haven assets into the US dollar. It can lead to,” Chowdhury said. Investors may remain cautious ahead of his RBI monetary policy meeting scheduled for later this month. The RBI is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. “USDINR spot price is expected to trade in the Rs 80.50 to Rs 82.50 range for the next few sessions,” Choudhary said.
- In the near future, there is a chance that the rupee would drop more against the dollar, possibly to 82
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