October winds down: Did the seasonals hold up? – ForexLive

Dollar Index monthly

In general, October isn’t a very ‘seasonal’ month for markets. There aren’t many strong trends in global asset classes or the forex market but I did highlight some of the patterns at the end of September and emphasized that stock market sentiment was far too negative. Here’s how the patterns panned out.

  • Second best month for AUD (AUD/USD set to finish the month flat)
  • Fourth best month for the dollar index (DXY finished the month down about 0.5%)
  • Weakest month for EUR/AUD (this pair gained about 350 pips)
  • Third weakest month for the euro (the euro gained about 140 pips)
  • Third-best month for the Nasdaq, though volatility is high with double digit gains/losses not uncommon (it was certainly volatile on the way to a 4.2% gain)
  • Fourth best month for the S&P 500 (+8.3%)
  • Third best month for the DAX (+9.3%)
  • Strongest month of the year for natural gas (the cold weather held off for most of the month but a big gain today trimmed the decline to -5%)
  • Weakest month of the year for oil (OPEC > seasonals. Oil gained 8.4%)
  • Seasonal weakness in bonds (Bond slumped, pushing up 10-year yields 30 bps)

Overall, it wasn’t a bad performance for seasonals. The patterns get stronger towards the end of the year with some real opportunities beginning to develop. I’ll have the November seasonal package out tomorrow.

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