In general, October isn’t a very ‘seasonal’ month for markets. There aren’t many strong trends in global asset classes or the forex market but I did highlight some of the patterns at the end of September and emphasized that stock market sentiment was far too negative. Here’s how the patterns panned out.
- Second best month for AUD (AUD/USD set to finish the month flat)
- Fourth best month for the dollar index (DXY finished the month down about 0.5%)
- Weakest month for EUR/AUD (this pair gained about 350 pips)
- Third weakest month for the euro (the euro gained about 140 pips)
- Third-best month for the Nasdaq, though volatility is high with double digit gains/losses not uncommon (it was certainly volatile on the way to a 4.2% gain)
- Fourth best month for the S&P 500 (+8.3%)
- Third best month for the DAX (+9.3%)
- Strongest month of the year for natural gas (the cold weather held off for most of the month but a big gain today trimmed the decline to -5%)
- Weakest month of the year for oil (OPEC > seasonals. Oil gained 8.4%)
- Seasonal weakness in bonds (Bond slumped, pushing up 10-year yields 30 bps)
Overall, it wasn’t a bad performance for seasonals. The patterns get stronger towards the end of the year with some real opportunities beginning to develop. I’ll have the November seasonal package out tomorrow.